Power Electronics Europe February/March 2022

6 MARKET NEWS Issue 1 2022 Power Electronics Europe www.power-mag.com Passenger electric vehicle sales are set to jump over 80 % in 2021, to 5.6 million units, off the back of unprecedented industry and government commitments around the world over the last two years, according to the Zero- Emission Vehicles Factbook, a special report published recently by BloombergNEF (BNEF). The Factbook documents the progress that has been made towards global net-zero emissions in the road transport sector, and shows that the future is brighter than ever for zero-emission vehicles. In the first half of 2021, sales of passenger electric vehicles (including battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell vehicles) were 140 % higher than the same period in 2019, reaching 7 % of global passenger vehicle sales. This compares with just 2.6 % in 2019, the year of the last UN Climate Change Conference. The total global fleet of passenger electric and fuel cell vehicles now totals nearly 13 million, of which 8.5 million are true zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), either battery electric or fuel cell (still, fuel cell vehicles account for a fraction of that total). The latter figure is up from just 4.6 million at the time of COP25. At the same time, by 1H 2021, the global fleet of zero-emission buses has increased by 22 % since 2019, and 18 % of all municipal buses on the road to be zero-emission at the end of 2021 are expected. What is more, the future looks brighter than ever. A review of industry outlooks shows that zero-emission vehicle forecasts have been raised across the board. BNEF’s own forecast for the global ZEV fleet in 2040 has been raised from 495 million vehicles in its 2019 forecast, to 677 million in its 2021 Electric Vehicle Outlook. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its 2030 battery electric vehicle fleet forecast by 7 % since 2019, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its 2040 estimate for the global electric and fuel cell vehicle fleet by 11 %. Underpinning these stronger forecasts are a range of factors, including improving battery technology and costs, faster roll-outs of charging infrastructure, a wider range of vehicle models on offer to customers, and Electric Vehicle Sales Target 40 Million Per Year By 2030 longer range and faster charging speeds available on the newest vehicles. “Sales of internal combustion engine vehicles need to stop around 2035 to get global road transport to net zero by 2050. This report highlights the remarkable progress that has been made towards this goal in the last two years, powered by increasing ambitions of leading governments and vehicle manufacturers. However, there is still a large gap to fill if we are to meet the 2035 deadline globally,” commented Aleksandra O’Donovan, electric vehicle analyst at BloombergNEF. www.bloomberg.com/ZEVreport Global passenger ZEV fleet (excludes plug-in hybrids) Source: BloombergNEF Increasing Demand for Automotive Axial Flux Motors Electric motors are the driving force behind electric vehicles (EVs). In addition to the batteries and power electronics, the electric motor is a critical component within the drivetrain. IDTechEx expects over 100 million electric motors to be required per year by 2032 to meet the demand for the growing EV market. Despite electric traction motors originally being developed in the 1800s, the market is still evolving today with new designs, improved performance and more considerations around the materials used. These are not just incremental improvements either, with developments such as axial flux motors and various OEMs eliminating rare-earths altogether. The latest report from IDTechEx, “Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2022-2032”, takes a deep dive into this market, assessing trends, benchmarking, and giving market forecasts through to 2032. There are several key performance metrics for electric motors. Power and torque density enables improved driving dynamics in a smaller and lighter package, with weight and space being at a premium in EVs. Another critical area is efficiency. Improving efficiency means that less of the precious energy stored in the battery is wasted when accelerating the vehicle, leading to improved range from the same battery capacity. Due to the many different considerations in motor design, the EV market has adopted several different solutions including permanent magnet, induction, and wound-rotor motors. In many cases, a combination of options may be used to give the best overall solution. Each has its own pros and cons in terms of performance but also in terms of materials costs and supply, with permanent magnet motors relying on Key parameters of motors in BEVs and emerging alternatives Source: IDTechEx