Drives and Controls January 2023

n GEARS AND GEARBOXES industries. Emea revenues from geared products are predicted to fall by 4% this year. The Asia-Pacific market (excluding Japan) is likely to be the only region that will experience a growth in sales during 2023 (3.9%), as China is starts to recover from the massive lockdowns of 2022. However, this recovery will likely remain weak, as the pandemic has hit the economy hard and concerns about zero-Covid policies have created uncertainty over Chinese domestic demand. Dynamics in downstream industries are shaping demands for geared products. The four sectors expected to increase demand for geared products the fastest during the period to 2027 are: warehousing and parcels; power; mining; and conveyors. Driven by energy shortages and record metal prices, demand from the mining and power industries spiked during 2022. The effects of this boom are expected to last into 2023, however demand from other heavy industries is likely to be gloomy because of high energy costs and emissions reduction goals. Demand for light-duty gears from the warehousing and parcels sector is expected to remain healthy during the period to 2027. There is also strong demand for geared products for conveyors used in material- handling applications. CAGRs for light-duty and heavy-duty products are predicted to be 4.4% and 3.4% respectively during the period to 2027. The CAGR for planetary gears is likely to be around 4.6% CAGR, driven by the wind turbine sector, where planetary gearboxes are used for pitch and yaw applications. Global wind power capacity increased by 12% in 2021, with newly added offshore wind capacity being three times greater than in 2020. In China, provincial governments have set goals that will add up to 70GW of wind capacity per year from 2022-2025 – a 47% increase on 2021. In Europe, offshore wind capacity is expected to be more than 25 times bigger by 2030. Interact discerns a clear trend towards higher efficiency geared motors. IE3-rated geared motors were the leading revenue generators in 2020, and their growth rate has been above average recently because regions including the EU, Turkey and China switched to mandatory IE3 efficiencies last year. Europe will continue this trend in July 2023, when most motors with outputs of 75– 200kW will have to meet IE4 “super premium efficiency” levels. Interact expect sales of geared motors with efficiencies of IE3 and higher to grow much faster than the market average for the foreseeable future. n Top 10 applications for geared products in 2021 (grey) and 2027 (blue), together with predicted CAGRs from 2021-2027. Source: Interact Analysis Di rect