Drives and Controls January 2023

27 www.drivesncontrols.com January 2023 ROBOTICS n the market for AMRs that avoid the need for navigation-supporting infrastructure will be 86 times larger by 2041 than it was in 2021. By contrast, infrastructure-dependent AGVs and grid-based AGVs will experience slower growth rates. AMRs will gradually replace AGVs in many logistics operations over the coming decade and, with shorter installation times, will offer quicker return on investment (ROI). However, because using navigation infrastructure results in more reliable and safer transport of materials using current technologies, AGVs and grid-based AGCs will hold larger market shares than AMRs in the short term. Last-mile delivery Outside of warehouses, developers of “last- mile”, on-demand delivery robots have also attracted substantial investments in recent years. For example, Nuro, which is developing autonomous delivery vans, has raised more than US$2.1bn to date. These systems can be categorised into three types: autonomous delivery vans; sidewalk delivery robots; and autonomous delivery drones. Autonomous last-mile delivery is an attractive but emerging market – but most companies in this sector are still small start- ups, and their products have yet to be fully commercialised. The biggest challenge to growth in this market in the coming years will be regulatory restrictions. In 2021, only a few suppliers were legally approved to run their services and products in restricted areas. However, some countries have introduced some deregulation with trial commercialisation led by governments or local authorities. We estimate that large- scale deregulation will happen in the next three to four years, starting in high-income regions such as Europe and the US, resulting in a take-off for autonomous last- mile delivery. The sidewalk delivery robot market is forecast to have the quickest growth, with a CAGR of 36% between now and 2042. On the other hand, autonomous delivery vans are expected to have the largest market share, accounting for 71% of the autonomous delivery market. The growth of autonomous delivery drones will be slow, primarily because they face more regulatory and technological challenges than ground- based delivery vehicles. Robotics in 2023 The increasing likelihood of a recession, and the rising costs of labour, raw materials and logistics, have driven many companies, from global corporates to SMEs, to adopt cobots to increase productivity. The short payback times (less than a year in many applications) and low capital costs (usually less than $40,000 per cobot) make themmore attractive for many companies with small budgets. Schemes such as Audi’s Smart Factory 2025 and the European Commission’s Industry 5.0 will drive demand for cobots, especially over the coming five to ten years. The increasing adoption of cobots will also require safety technologies such as force and torque sensors, and cameras. Service robots have experienced substantial growth over the past two years because of Covid-19 and their economic benefits have proven significant. The market for AGVs and AMRs has grown rapidly over the past two years. With the easing of regulations and improvements in technologies, AMRs will overtake AGVs in the longer term, although AGVs will remain dominant in the short term. n www.IDTechEx.com/Research/robotics Service robots are machines that perform useful tasks, excluding industrial automation applications. They can be used to automate a broad spectrum of industries, including logistics and delivery, agriculture, underwater exploration, food service and more. Driven by rising labour costs, the trend for deglobalisation and border closures, service robots are becoming increasingly popular. They offer the possibility of automating many dull tasks. Among the many potential applications, delivery and logistics robots, as well as cleaning and disinfection robots, are expected to lead the market in the foreseeable future thanks to the advanced stage of these technologies and their large addressable markets. The Covid pandemic has driven the demand for cleaning and disinfection robots. For example, at least 50 more cleaning and disinfection robot manufacturers were founded in 2021 than in 2020. IDTechEx believes that sales of these robots will continue to grow at double-digit rates during the period to 2027. Logistics and cleaning robots have the advantage of typically working in well-controlled indoor environments, unlike underwater robots which have to operate in harsh environments with low temperatures, poor visibility and limited GPS signals, among other challenges. Similarly, agricultural robots need to tackle difficult terrains and unpredictable weather, adding complexity to their sensory systems, design and control. They – along with kitchen and restaurant robots, and social robots – are still early in their commercialisation. However, we anticipate a surge in these markets with the easing of regulations and increasing technical capabilities. For example, we are predicting an 8.8-fold increase in demand for logistics and delivery robots, and a 6.8-fold increase for social robots by 2032 compared with 2021. Service robots are set to automate many daily tasks The commercialisation of various types of service robot depends on market demand and how advanced their technologies are. Source: IDTechEx