January 2022

32 n VARIABLE-SPEED DRIVES January 2022 www.drivesncontrols.com Efficiency, safety and PdM are driving the VSD market T he variable-speed drives market is back on track, growing by around 7.7% last year. Our latest market research identifies three important trends influencing the drives market: functional safety, predictive maintenance, and efficiency regulations. Functional safety is a slow growth trend, but it is very real and will not stop. Predictive maintenance, though some dismiss it as hype, is crucial and drives have a big role to play. Finally, energy efficiency is obviously in vogue. New motor efficiency classes such as IE4 and IE5 require drives and will provide an important market boost. Functional safety Progress towards enhanced functional safety in the drives sector has been slow and, in two significant respects, uneven. Firstly, there is considerable disparity at the regional level, with standards and regulations exerting a top-down pressure in the US and EMEA, while in China and other low-cost regions the driver is mainly the end- user. Secondly, the nature and deployment of different drives determines levels of functional safety. Most drives sold in EMEA and the Americas incorporate basic STO (safe torque- off ) functions, with only a few having anything more advanced. EU laws are pushing manufacturers to include SS1 and SLS functions in their products, but progress is slow because advanced safety requires precise control – often full closed-loop vector control – pushing up prices significantly. Some drives manufacturers are already including tailored safety functions to corner the market in specific applications. Lenze and SEW, for example, are doing this with conveyor drives for applications in the food and beverage, and airport, sectors. Predictive maintenance Unlike other forms of maintenance and machinery monitoring, predictive maintenance (PdM) is proactive, using data and machine-learning algorithms to signal when a failure is likely to happen. The value of PdM lies in the fact that it prevents expensive motors from failing or production from stopping. A key feature of LV drives is that they can perform PdM on themselves, and on the motors they are controlling. They act as data sensors, indicating when a motor is under stress. They can also act as data aggregators. Machine-builders have recognised the monetary value of developing predictive maintenance applications, but say that a major problem is collecting accurate vibration and temperature data. This is because it is not always possible to place sensors on the appropriate parts of a machine. The ability of LV drives to monitor and store data from the machines they are controlling could make them the predictive maintenance technology of choice for machine-builders. PdM functions in drives will come at a premium initially, but their value is so strong that they will quickly become standard functions, and prices will fall. Drive manufacturers should recognise PdM as a potentially significant revenue stream and grab the opportunity now. Efficiency regulations Around 40% of the world’s electricity is consumed by electric motors. And the global drive to address energy sustainability has led to energy efficiency regulations being introduced around the world. New rules affecting the EU, the UK and Ukraine state that all motors sold must comply with IE3 standards. Demand for drives from the electric motor industry has therefore increased. The IE4 and IE5 efficiency standards are now well understood, but not yet enforced, and motors operating to these standards require drives. While currently occupying only a small segment of the market, IE4 and IE5 are forecast to see considerable growth over the coming 5–10 years. Initially, the high cost of this new generation of motors will mean that they will penetrate only into energy-intensive applications such as HVAC and data centres, where they can deliver a healthy return on investment. But regulatory pressures, coupled with price erosion as demand scales up, will drive the spread of this technology. Currently, Europe is the leader inmotor efficiency regulation, and we expect adoption of IE4 and IE5 motors to be highest in this region. Encouragingly, though, China recently adopted IE3 as a standard. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy is targeting whole motor systems rather than individual components – a way of thinking that will encourage adoption of drives to push efficiency. n You can contact Blake Griffin at Blake.Griffin@InteractAnalysis.com Blake Griffin, a senior analyst at Interact Analysis specialising in automation systems and industrial digitalisation, identifies three key trends that are shaping the global market for LV AC drives. How the global market for LV AC drives is expected to grow, showing revenues ($m) for three regions on the left axis and year-on-year growth (%) on the right axis Source: Interact Analysis