APRIL 2023 AFTERMARKET 35 www.aftermarketonline.net and apparently generous warranty. Will the newly arrived China-built pure electric vehicles have the type of product support they need, or will customers be encouraged to simply buy a new one rather than repair? Even if take-up is near universal, the rate of change will not be more than 2.5 million units in 2023 unless government in effect pay drivers to trade in their existing vehicles, especially if they are powered by an internal combustion engine. Further, the traditional service items such as brake pads and discs will require replacement far less frequently thanks to regenerative braking – circa one quarter the existing frequency - but for older electric vehicles the huge torque from stand-still will result in a steady stream of wheel bearing/driveshaft repairs, to say nothing of suspension bushes/cracked links – at about the fourth or fifth year of ownership. So, this will affect the existing automotive aftermarket service. In the real world For motorists that cannot afford or will not migrate, the demand for services will continue unaltered. In this scenario we need to be aware of prevailing local economics/taxation, such as the London ULEZ charge, which may force some clients off the road. For most of the UK there will be a mix of work with some new additions: Huge emphasis on vehicle software, covering everything from the traction battery control module to on-board heat pump The addition of CO2 refrigerants Repair of otherwise difficult to recycle traction batteries, including cells/packs inside the module The challenges in keeping otherwise conventional vehicles going as traditional OEM and highquality Tier 1 parts supplies dry up There will be a drop-off in service work due to the change in pattern of pure electric vehicles, but as these age the type of repair work will be more costly than for an equivalent conventional vehicle of the same age. It’s as if every Vauxhall Corsa F was really a BMW M4 all along, with that famous electric motor start torque as the primary cause of the wear. For the lion’s share of the parc which are powered by petrol or diesel internal combustion engines, the aftermarket is going to have to go a bit retro – to consider types of repair which were much more common 20 years ago such as engine rebuilds. The objective is life extension by refurbishment, where the customer gets a usable vehicle for a fraction of the cost of replacing the whole vehicle. Full steam ahead! There have around 620,000 pure electric cars and vans sold in the UK so far, with around 25,000 units added to the total each month. Already there are viable business opportunities to address issues with those early models, where the owner may not have warranty cover and won’t want to buy something like a new battery or traction motor. Such repair services are on a tiny scale now, but it is changing rapidly. Similarly, the effect on the vast parc of mostly conventional vehicles will become more noticeable by 2025, with or without government intervention. The key message is not to assume very much at all, take a look at what is happening with tax/penalty charges in your region, and then figure out what type of powertrain is most likely to be used by your potential customers. This will change year-on-year, and the aftermarket business needs to do exactly the same. Crucially, assuming nothing will change is not an option at all – making a business decision to only go after the type of work that has existed for the past few decades needs strong marketing to ensure all opportunities for work land with your business. Rest assured, Lord Deben will need no thanks. Crucially, assuming nothing will change is not an option at all ” Next issue: Andrew considers the European motor industry
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