Aftermarket March 2023

BY Andrew Marsh, Engineering Director, Auto Industry Consulting Ltd A s of 2020, there were 40.35 million vehicles registered for road use of which 35.08 million were cars and 4.60 million were LCVs. There is a growing electric segment, but EVs are still far from making up the majority of passenger vehicles. What might happen over the next few years? Scenario 1 – Mass adoption of pure electric vehicles Those who get the public to pay for everything they undertake, members of the House of Commons and House of Lords, for example, think they will dictate what is to be done, and thanks to the superior intellect the masses will “jolly well do what they are told” To this end, the ‘independent’ Environment and Climate Change Committee chaired by Lord Deben, formerly John Selywn Gummer MP, (it’s that man again) produced a report in October 2022 called ‘In our hands: Behaviour change for climate and environmental goals’. The dream is to get everyone into pure electric vehicles, and to use a series of taxation and other measures to encourage adoption. Several issues emerge. Firstly, there is the rate of change of the parc. This runs at between 1.5 and 2.5 million units per year. On this basis, if pure electric vehicles – the politician’s choice – were the same price as all other powertrains with the same type of range, and if there was enough battery power to support that volume of vehicles, no further government intervention would be required. It would take up to 15 years (2038), 32 AFTERMARKET MARCH 2023 TECHNICAL www.aftermarketonline.net PART TWO: A TALE OF THE UK MARKET Andrew provocatively considers whether current car market trends will continue, and what the other options might be assuming every single new vehicle sale from now on is pure electric. However, the ban of new cars and light vans powered by an internal combustion engine after 2030 in the UK or, 2035 in the EU and UK when equipped with MHEV, HEV or PHEV powertrains, means a much higher change rate than even 2.5 million units per year. The cost of pure electric vehicles is still typically 40% more than even an internal combustion engine MHEV, HEV or PHEV. Further, due to battery supply constraints, supply is rather limited. The transition also requires users to alter their usage, to plan ahead and thus avoid ‘range anxiety’. The main battle ground is charging – not at the usual parking place, but when the vehicle is out and about. The only public charger network that has