February 2022

Disruptions Things then took a turn for the academic, in a good way, as automotive expert Professor David Bailey of the Birmingham Business School segued onto the screen. He was discussing the impact of COVID-19, trade after Brexit, electrification and future legislation. On the pandemic, he observed: “The economy has bounced back. It is smaller, but the impact on automotive has been great. It bounced back at first, but was then hit by a kind of long Covid over the semiconductor shortage. We are looking at adverse supply side constraints that will go into next year. We are also seeing VMs shifting away from relying on suppliers to doing things in-house. The economic forecasts are not that brilliant. We have seen that new car sales are constrained on the supply side. I think we will see sales held back on the demand side too. “Last year, the new car market was down by 30%, but they were down before. We don’t know what the market really looks like. What the new normal is, we are not really sure. What we do know is that last year plug-in vehicles were 10% of the market for the first time. Looking at plug- in hybrids and EVs it was over 23%. We are also seeing a shift away from diesels. That is going to continue. Before all the tax breaks at the beginning of the century, diesel sales across Europe were around 10-15%. This was a particularly European problem, as it was European VMs who shifted production to meet tailpipe emissions rules. Some segments are still very diesel dominated, such as SUVs. “Then there are low emission zones, which are going to further push people away from diesels in cities. We also 54 AFTERMARKET FEBRUARY 2022 ON THE ROAD www.aftermarketonline.net have the ban on ICE vehicles from 2030. It’s not just the UK, it is a European-wide phenomenon. It is the right thing to be doing, but the government has to provide a roadmap. The infrastructure is not keeping up.” On Brexit, he said: “We saw a big decline in the UK car industry because of the uncertainty. The Trade and Co- operation Agreement avoided tariffs and quotas. However, it was a very thin deal and there are still lots of extra costs. There are significant no-tariff barriers. That’s not everything though. Big investment is going into battery manufacturing in the EU. We will be left behind if we are not careful. On EVs, Professor Bailey concluded: “The shift to EVs is just beginning, but for the new-car buyer I don’t think there are many reasons to buy an ICE car after 2025. It is very much driven by regulations, but the costs are also coming down. The UK was very much out of step cutting EV subsidies, before there was backlash. UK support has been very useful, but support for gigafactories was very small compared to what has been done in Europe. We need more if we are going to see mass car production continue in the UK. We have the 2030 target, but at the moment it is a date without a plan.” DPFs, Cats and more Shifting to legislative enforcement, the next speakers were Sophia Mir and Christopher Lowe from the DVSA Market Surveillance Unit, who covered how it supports the industry, its work programmes, and aftermarket emissions controls, guidance, and intelligence. Christopher said: “Our three aftermarket programmes this year were around Catalytic converters and DPFs, brakes and headlamp bulbs.” On the Cats and DPFs side, he observed: “If we find products we don’t like, we will test them in labs. What have we found? We have found products that are not approved, as well as products that are being mis-sold. The cataloguing and improvements we have seen are helping to stamp this out. We have also found manufacturing issues. What has changed though? It is getting harder for us to buy the wrong part, and for this we thank you. There have been big improvements were it is clearer where it is Euro-4 specific or Euro 5-specific or Euro 6- specific. Going forward, we will keep doing the same, looking to work with distributors as well as manufacturers to avoid misinterpretation. What can you do? Please report to us any suspicions you have.” On the Unit’s aftermarket brakes programme, Christopher said: “This is an ongoing programme. It is broad market surveillance. If we find products that do not comply they will be recalled, or we may take action.” On headlamp bulbs he said: “Some bulbs do not have the relevant markings, and you can buy the same bulb from different suppliers, but some have the correct markings and some don’t. What are we doing? We test these as well, and there will be follow-up action with potential prosecutions down the line. Then there is the illegal retrofit of LEDs. If you replace halogen lamps with LEDs, this is an illegal service. If you have any suspicions, please report them to us.” Christopher added: “Moving forward, we will work with the industry where required. If you are unsure, come to us. We will also work with DfT with regards to changing rules where required. We will continue to investigate and enforce.” We are moving forward and the IAAF is embarking on a lot of projects ”