February 2021

will look spectacularly good, just because of a return to normality.” On Brexit, David commented: “You shouldn’t forget about that, even though it has been going on for a very long time,” and he went on to discuss the increasing complexity of the situation, which has been compounded by COVID-19 pressures.” Summing up, he concluded: “There are a few weeks of challenge to get through while restrictions are in place, and I think we all have to accept that. However, I am optimistic about what is in store for 2021. It is a question getting through to, after which the economic numbers will start looking very good indeed, for a time.” Market The next section looked at the likely state of the aftermarket in 2021 in three key areas. On first was Quentin Le Hetet from GiPA UK. He was looking at the marketplace, and the likely impact we might expect to see in the UK and Europe as a result of COVID-19. Casting back to 2010, he looked at the changing market, as diesel rose and fell, and EVs and hybrids rose and rose. “We had a changing dynamic for the decade to come, with new energy and new mobility,” said Quentin. He continued: “The impact for 2021 and further beyond in terms of the automotive industry depends on two key structural points for the car parc, which is going to change massively. As recently as two years ago, Quentin was predicting a fall in car ownership, but Coronavirus has shifted that course. “Because of COVID-19, everyone wants their own car to avoid taking any kind of public transport.” On the fall in new car sales in 2020, Quentin said: “This is going to determine the car parc we have for the next 15 years. That lack of new registrations in 2020 will impact franchised dealers mainly for three years, then it will impact on independent garages. The other thing is that the car parc is going to age quite rapidly. The average age of the car parc at the start of 2020 was 7-8 years old. The number of 5-9 year old cars is going to increase, and by 2023 the car parc will be 14% older than it was in 2015.” This was introduced across Europe and the UK in September. The legislation states that the information must be provided in a electronically processable format. This was meant to be the provision of all data for all vehicles, but the VMs are choosing a different interpretation; Data for one vehicle, at a time, not what was intended by the legislation, or is practical in today’s world. “The legislation also states that the OBD port remain open for all service and repair, but some VMS continue to close the OBD port, insisting on a secure gateway with certified access. The result? They will know what work is being carried out on what car by whom. The scope of the legislation stated everything from Euro 5 vehicles onwards, but the VMs have decided they will only comply with vehicles from September 2020 onwards. “Finally, they are trying to classify the VIN number of the vehicle as personal data, which seems somewhat bizarre. If successful, it will have severe implications, potentially restricting access to the vehicle by the independent aftermarket. We will continue to fight these non- compliances to this important piece of legislation. “We also have our work cut out on a number of other fronts. We have Block Exemption, our mother regulation, which underpins everything we do. That comes to an end in 2023. Remember, this gives us the right to service and repair all vehicles from day one and enables us to provide parts of matching quality. This is so very important to our sector. If we are not protected in this way, this could quickly result in a total lock- out from the vehicle for the aftermarket. “Remote access to in-vehicle data is another vital area as vehicles are increasingly connected. As we see the growing importance of predictive maintenance and repair models, if we wait for the vehicle to turn up at the workshop with the problem, it will be too late. We need the right to access these vehicles much earlier. SERMI is the scheme to allow workshops to access secure areas of the vehicle in a safe and certified way. It has already had a tortuous seven-year struggle to see the light of day which now has further complications with emissions and Brexit. This is another key area for us to lobby on, as more of the repair tasks on vehicles are being re- 44 AFTERMARKET FEBRUARY 2021 BUSINESS EVENT www.aftermarketonline.net classified as secure. This will become particularly important with the latest threat we are facing, that of cyber security, possibly the biggest threat yet to our sector.” Wendy added: “We have our work cut out for us, yet again, for the year ahead.” Context Following a five minute chance to stretch, next up was the keynote speaker for the day, David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, who provided a wider financial context, and some Brexit commentary: “I have some affinity for the aftermarket,” he observed, “being a regular user of independent garages, and having grown up in the West Midlands, surrounded by much of your sector.” While Brexit was the central subject, the ongoing impact of COVID- 19 was also covered. For David, there were four sets of questions that needed to be covered. First, the kind of recession and recovery would the economy experience, how the efforts of the Bank of England, with regards to quantative easing would impact, whether taxes would rise, and of course the level of disruption Brexit might bring. On the potential impact of COVID-19 into 2021, he observed: “Unemployment will probably not go up as much as it has after the big recessions we can all remember; the early 1980s, the early 1990s, and the financial crisis. “The motor industry is not a happy place at the moment, you can see this if you look at the SMMT’s rolling 12-year totals. It is still extremely weak. COVID-19 has been put on top of a lot of other things including the shift away from diesel, and the uncertainties over Brexit and so on. Commenting on the impact of lockdowns and the tier system he said: “As long as restrictions are in place, there will not be a full recovery. I think we have to accept that.” There is some cause for optimism though: “There will be very a decisive bounce as we move into the Spring next year. That’s partly because of the vaccine, but also when you compare the second quarter of next year with what was happening this year, the numbers are just going to go off the scale. They This is going to determine the car parc for the next 15 years ”